9YardsTerminal
Tue, Jun 30 ETWire
@pmarcaThe cost of intelligence is collapsing faster than any input cost in history. Every business plan written before 2024 is now mispriced. Re-underwrite everything.· 56m@Shaun_MaguireHearing Anduril's next round is heavily oversubscribed. Defense tech is no longer contrarian — it's consensus. The alpha now is in the picks-and-shovels layer underneath the primes.· 1h@typesfastReshoring is pulling capital back into the boring middle of supply chains — customs, freight, trade finance. Several freight-tech and trade-finance infra rounds getting done quietly at strong multiples. Software eating logistics, finally.· 2h@chamathIPO window is cracking open. If you're a $200M+ ARR software company growing 40%+ and you're not on file by Q4, you're leaving the best print of the decade on the table.· 2h@PalmerLuckeyReminder that the hardest part of hardware isn't the hardware. It's building a supply chain that survives contact with reality. Software people consistently underestimate this by 10x.· 2h@HarryStebbingsNew 20VC drop: a Series A founder told me they replaced an entire 12-person support org with one agent pipeline and 2 engineers. Gross margins went from 61% to 89%. This is the new normal.· 2h@traestephensDefense procurement is bending toward software-defined systems. The next decade of national-security value accrues to the autonomy and sensing layer, not the platforms. Dual-use is the default now, not the exception.· 3h@garrytanThis YC batch: 71% of companies are building with agents at the core, not as a feature. The wrapper debate is over — the question is who owns the workflow and the data exhaust.· 3h@bgurleyEvery prior compute platform shift eventually compressed margins for the layer that didn't own distribution. Ask of any AI app: what happens to you when the model is free? If you don't have an answer, you don't have a company.· 3h@saranormousInference costs down ~80% YoY again. The companies that were 'too expensive to run' 18 months ago are now wildly profitable. Re-visit every deal you passed on for unit economics.· 4h@fintechjunkieFinancial infrastructure is the most durable category in fintech — the rails, compliance, and risk layers that regulated industries can't build themselves. Boring, sticky, and exactly where the enduring franchises compound.· 4h@packyMSpace is having its 'AWS moment.' Launch is now a commodity; the value is migrating to in-orbit services, data downlink, and Earth-observation applications. The application layer in space is wide open.· 4h@eladgilSeeing a wave of $1-3M seed rounds with $30M+ post valuations again. Be careful: 2021 muscle memory is back. Price discipline at entry is 80% of venture returns and nobody wants to hear it.· 5h@chamathAcquisition watch: expect a wave of consolidation in the AI infra middle layer this year. The orchestration startups that didn't reach escape velocity become acqui-hires for the hyperscalers.· 5h@MollyOSheaJust sat down with three robotics founders this week. The throughline: humanoid hype is a distraction. The money is in boring, single-task automation for warehouses and food service shipping today.· 6h@HarryStebbingsHiring signal: three different growth-stage founders told me they're freezing GTM headcount and re-deploying into ML eng. The org chart of the 2026 startup looks nothing like 2021.· 6h@pmarcaMarket volatility is noise. The signal is that capital is finally rotating from passive index exposure toward concentrated bets on the companies actually building the future. That's good for venture.· 7h@Shaun_MaguireQuietly, defense primes are now writing checks into seed-stage startups directly. Strategic capital is back. For founders this is a double-edged sword — speed and contracts, but watch the option pool dilution.· 7h@saranormousA founder framework I loved this week: 'Sell the workflow, not the model.' Customers don't buy intelligence — they buy outcomes that used to require a headcount. Price to the headcount you replace.· 8h@pmarcaThe cost of intelligence is collapsing faster than any input cost in history. Every business plan written before 2024 is now mispriced. Re-underwrite everything.· 56m@Shaun_MaguireHearing Anduril's next round is heavily oversubscribed. Defense tech is no longer contrarian — it's consensus. The alpha now is in the picks-and-shovels layer underneath the primes.· 1h@typesfastReshoring is pulling capital back into the boring middle of supply chains — customs, freight, trade finance. Several freight-tech and trade-finance infra rounds getting done quietly at strong multiples. Software eating logistics, finally.· 2h@chamathIPO window is cracking open. If you're a $200M+ ARR software company growing 40%+ and you're not on file by Q4, you're leaving the best print of the decade on the table.· 2h@PalmerLuckeyReminder that the hardest part of hardware isn't the hardware. It's building a supply chain that survives contact with reality. Software people consistently underestimate this by 10x.· 2h@HarryStebbingsNew 20VC drop: a Series A founder told me they replaced an entire 12-person support org with one agent pipeline and 2 engineers. Gross margins went from 61% to 89%. This is the new normal.· 2h@traestephensDefense procurement is bending toward software-defined systems. The next decade of national-security value accrues to the autonomy and sensing layer, not the platforms. Dual-use is the default now, not the exception.· 3h@garrytanThis YC batch: 71% of companies are building with agents at the core, not as a feature. The wrapper debate is over — the question is who owns the workflow and the data exhaust.· 3h@bgurleyEvery prior compute platform shift eventually compressed margins for the layer that didn't own distribution. Ask of any AI app: what happens to you when the model is free? If you don't have an answer, you don't have a company.· 3h@saranormousInference costs down ~80% YoY again. The companies that were 'too expensive to run' 18 months ago are now wildly profitable. Re-visit every deal you passed on for unit economics.· 4h@fintechjunkieFinancial infrastructure is the most durable category in fintech — the rails, compliance, and risk layers that regulated industries can't build themselves. Boring, sticky, and exactly where the enduring franchises compound.· 4h@packyMSpace is having its 'AWS moment.' Launch is now a commodity; the value is migrating to in-orbit services, data downlink, and Earth-observation applications. The application layer in space is wide open.· 4h@eladgilSeeing a wave of $1-3M seed rounds with $30M+ post valuations again. Be careful: 2021 muscle memory is back. Price discipline at entry is 80% of venture returns and nobody wants to hear it.· 5h@chamathAcquisition watch: expect a wave of consolidation in the AI infra middle layer this year. The orchestration startups that didn't reach escape velocity become acqui-hires for the hyperscalers.· 5h@MollyOSheaJust sat down with three robotics founders this week. The throughline: humanoid hype is a distraction. The money is in boring, single-task automation for warehouses and food service shipping today.· 6h@HarryStebbingsHiring signal: three different growth-stage founders told me they're freezing GTM headcount and re-deploying into ML eng. The org chart of the 2026 startup looks nothing like 2021.· 6h@pmarcaMarket volatility is noise. The signal is that capital is finally rotating from passive index exposure toward concentrated bets on the companies actually building the future. That's good for venture.· 7h@Shaun_MaguireQuietly, defense primes are now writing checks into seed-stage startups directly. Strategic capital is back. For founders this is a double-edged sword — speed and contracts, but watch the option pool dilution.· 7h@saranormousA founder framework I loved this week: 'Sell the workflow, not the model.' Customers don't buy intelligence — they buy outcomes that used to require a headcount. Price to the headcount you replace.· 8h Loading terminal…